Data Note

Kenya is Deindustrialising — and Not Many are Talking About It

Ten years of GDP data reveal a doubling economy, an agriculture surprise, and a structural manufacturing decline that should concern policymakers.

"The economy more than doubled from KES 9.9T to KES 23.9T in nine years."

By Stephen Omukoko Okoth·9 March 2026

#GDP#Manufacturing#Kenya Economy#Structural Change#Agriculture

Kenya is deindustrialising and not many are talking about it. Here is what 10 years of GDP data shows:

The economy more than doubled from KES 9.9T to KES 23.9T in nine years.
Agriculture defied development theory. It gained more GDP share than any other sector, growing from KES 1.34T to KES 3.65T while economists expected it to shrink.
Accommodation & Food Services was the decade's fastest grower (17.3% CAGR), quadrupling in size despite a 35% COVID collapse in 2020.
Transport quietly became the services economy's backbone, reaching KES 2.06T as Kenya deepened its role as East Africa's logistics hub.
Manufacturing is the structural concern — 6.2% CAGR and a decade of losing GDP share. The economy is deindustrialising in relative terms.
COVID revealed the real economy: aviation −50%, hospitality −35%. Agriculture and construction actually accelerated.
The digital paradox: ICT grew but lost GDP share. Productivity gains are showing up inside other sectors, not in ICT's own line.

All figures nominal. Source: KNBS GDP by Activity.

Data source: Central Bank of Kenya — Commercial Banks Weighted Average Interest Rates, 1991–2025.