The World Still Enjoys Kenya's Tea — But Its Fastest-Growing Export Is Flowers

The world still enjoys Kenya's tea, but its fastest-growing demand is for Kenyan flowers. I analyzed 26 years of Kenya's principal export data (1998–2025) covering coffee, tea, and horticulture to uncover long-term changes.

Key insights:

1. Export earnings reached a record KSh 387.6B in 2024, growing at a 7.66% CAGR — clear evidence of sustained trade expansion.

2. Horticulture is the fastest-growing export, with a 9.57% value CAGR, signalling a transition toward high-value agriculture.

3. The export mix is changing: horticulture's share rose from 34.9% → 41.5%, while tea's share declined despite remaining the largest export.

4. Tea remains the volume anchor, but growth is now being driven by diversification rather than a single commodity.

5. Coffee tells a price-driven growth story — declining volumes but sharply rising unit values.

6. Horticulture shows the most consistent year-to-year growth, making it the most stable foreign-exchange earner among the three.

7. Coffee is the most volatile export, highlighting its sensitivity to global commodity cycles and production shocks.

8. Export diversification is reducing overall volatility, with the total basket showing the most stable YoY performance.

Data source: Central Bank of Kenya.

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