Kenya and Uganda: The Closest Siblings in East African Trade

Kenya and Uganda are the closest siblings in East Africa — at least that is what the trade numbers tell us. Should Uganda shut its doors (and windows), Kenya's exports will fall by close to 40%.

Over the last 28 years, Kenya's export landscape has shifted markedly, with the European market playing a less significant role while the East African market claims that space. This analysis covers Kenya's exports data from 1998 to 2025, provided by the Central Bank of Kenya.

Key findings:

1. Exports to the selected Rest-of-World destinations grew from Ksh 121,252M (1998) to Ksh 1,624,207M (2024), a 13.4x expansion over 26 years.

2. That translates to a 10.50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 1998 to 2024 — strong long-run nominal expansion.

3. Export concentration (HHI) increased from 1,712 (1998) to 2,803 (2024), firmly in the "highly concentrated" range.

4. Kenya first crossed the high-concentration threshold (HHI > 2,500) in 2012 (2,620) and has remained above that level through 2025 YTD (2,768).

5. Uganda's export share rose from 16.0% (1998) to 39.5% (2024) — a +23.47 percentage point structural increase.

6. In 2024, exports to Uganda alone (Ksh 641,727M) exceeded the combined exports to 9 named markets excluding "Others" (Ksh 435,520M).

7. Between 1998 and 2024, the largest share declines were:

   • UK: -9.63pp
   • Tanzania: -9.22pp
   • Germany: -3.41pp

8. Africa's share rose, while Europe fell from 25.26% to 10.84% — a clear structural pivot.

9. Jan–Aug 2025 exports totaled Ksh 1,056,232M, compared to Ksh 1,127,752M in Jan–Aug 2024 — a -6.34% YoY decline, with Uganda accounting for most of the decline.

This level of concentration in a single market represents both a strength and a vulnerability for Kenya's external sector.

Data source: Central Bank of Kenya. Questions: info@leadafrik.com