Data Note

Kenya and Uganda: East Africa's Closest Trade Siblings

If Uganda shut its doors, Kenya's exports would fall by close to 40%. 28 years of export data reveal a dramatic structural pivot away from Europe toward East Africa.

By Stephen Omukoko Okoth·18 February 2026

#Exports#Uganda#East Africa#Trade Concentration#HHI#CBK#Regional Trade

Kenya and Uganda are the closest siblings in East Africa — at least that is what the trade numbers tell us. Should Uganda shut its doors (and windows), Kenya's exports would fall by close to 40%. Over the last 28 years, Kenya's export landscape has shifted markedly, with the European market playing a less significant role while the East African market claims that space.

I analysed Kenya's exports data from 1998 to 2025, provided by the Central Bank of Kenya.

Scale of expansion: Exports to the selected Rest-of-World destinations grew from KSh 121,252M in 1998 to KSh 1,624,207M in 2024 — a 13.4× expansion over 26 years, translating to a 10.50% compound annual growth rate.

Export concentration has increased sharply. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) rose from 1,712 in 1998 to 2,803 in 2024, putting Kenya firmly in the "highly concentrated" range. Kenya first crossed the high-concentration threshold (HHI > 2,500) in 2012 and has remained above it every year since.

Uganda's dominance is structural, not cyclical. Uganda's export share rose from 16.0% in 1998 to 39.5% in 2024 — a +23.47 percentage point structural increase spanning more than two decades.

The scale is striking. In 2024, exports to Uganda alone (KSh 641,727M) exceeded the combined exports to nine other named markets (KSh 435,520M). One bilateral relationship now anchors Kenya's entire export portfolio.

Europe has receded significantly. The largest share declines between 1998 and 2024 were: UK (−9.63pp), Tanzania (−9.22pp), Germany (−3.41pp). Africa's share rose while Europe fell from 25.26% to 10.84%.

2025 shows early warning signs. January–August 2025 exports totalled KSh 1,056,232M, compared to KSh 1,127,752M in January–August 2024 — a −6.34% year-on-year decline, with Uganda accounting for the bulk of the shortfall.

The concentration risk is real. Kenya's export resilience now depends heavily on a single bilateral relationship. Diversification within East Africa and beyond remains a strategic priority.

Source: Central Bank of Kenya.

Data source: Central Bank of Kenya — Commercial Banks Weighted Average Interest Rates, 1991–2025.