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Module 02 of 1250 min readMixed

Price and yield — the inverse relationship

Why bond prices fall when yields rise. Yield to maturity, current yield, running yield. The discounting maths every fixed-income desk uses.

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Learning objectives

By the end of this module, you should be able to:

  • 01Compute a bond's price as the present value of its promised cash flows
  • 02Define yield to maturity, current yield, and running yield and explain how they differ
  • 03Explain why bond prices and yields move inversely
  • 04Apply day-count and accrued-interest conventions in practice

A bond's price is the present value of its promised cash flows discounted at the prevailing market yield. Price and yield move in opposite directions because the cash flows are fixed at issuance: when the market demands a higher yield, the same cash flows are discounted more heavily and the bond's price falls; when the market accepts a lower yield, the same cash flows are discounted less heavily and the bond's price rises. The inverse price-yield relationship is the single most-important fact in fixed income and the foundation that the duration, convexity, and yield-curve mechanics in subsequent modules build directly on.

The pricing formula in full

text
N
───── CF_t
P = ∑ ─────────
t = 1 (1 + y)^t
For a typical fixed-coupon bond, CF_t expands to:
CF_t = C for t = 1, 2, … N−1
CF_t = C + F for t = N (final coupon plus principal at maturity)

Variable glossary — every symbol explained

  • P — the bond's full price today, also called the 'dirty price' because it includes any accrued interest. Reported in currency units per unit of face value (e.g. USD 1,012.50 against a USD 1,000 face).
  • N — the total number of cash-flow dates remaining until maturity. A 10-year annual-coupon bond has N=10; a 10-year semi-annual bond has N=20. Doubling N roughly doubles a bond's exposure to long-term yield changes but only when the new cash flows are pushed out in time.
  • t — the index running over each cash-flow date, expressed in years from today. For semi-annual bonds, t takes values 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, … N/2. Time enters the formula in the exponent of the discount factor, which is why longer cash flows are penalised more heavily by higher yields.
  • CF_t — the cash flow received at time t. For a plain bond this is C (the coupon) for every period except the last, when it becomes C + F. For floaters, sinking funds, or amortising bonds, CF_t becomes more complex but the formula's shape stays the same.
  • C — the periodic coupon payment in currency units. For a 6% annual-coupon bond on USD 1,000 face, C = USD 60; for the same bond paid semi-annually, C is USD 30 per period and N doubles.
  • F — the face value (par value, principal). The amount returned at maturity. For US corporate bonds typically USD 1,000; for Kenyan T-bonds typically KES 50,000 or KES 1,000,000. F sets the denomination but does not by itself drive value once everything is scaled to it.
  • y — the yield to maturity, expressed in decimal form (0.06 for 6%). The single discount rate that equates the present value of all promised cash flows to the bond's current market price. y is set by the market every minute the bond trades.
  • (1 + y)^t — the discount factor that brings a future cash flow at time t back to today. A higher y means the discount factor at every date is larger, pulling all PVs down. The exponent t is what makes distant cash flows lose value disproportionately as y rises — and what makes long-duration bonds so sensitive to yield moves.

Why each variable matters in practice

N comes from the bond's prospectus and never changes once the bond exists. t is set by the coupon-frequency convention (semi-annual in the US, annual in Europe and Kenya). C is fixed at issuance unless the bond is a floater. F is the denomination — important for sizing trades but not for relative pricing. y is the only variable that moves continuously, and every news event, central-bank communication, and shift in risk sentiment ultimately translates into a change in y for some basket of bonds. An analyst's daily job is, in large part, predicting how y will move and what that will do to the present-value sum above.

The semi-annual convention — same formula, halved

US Treasuries, most US corporate bonds, and many emerging-market sovereigns pay coupons twice a year. The pricing formula is unchanged in shape; you simply substitute C/2 for the coupon, 2N for the period count, and y/2 for the per-period discount rate. The mathematical reason: the bond's cash flows arrive every six months, so the periodic compounding rate is half the annualised yield. Forgetting this halving when pricing a semi-annual bond is one of the most common analyst errors and produces a price difference of around 1-2 percent on a mid-tenor bond.

Three yield measures, three different questions

  • Yield to maturity (YTM, y): the single discount rate that solves the pricing formula above. Answers 'what total return will I earn if I buy at today's price and hold to maturity, reinvesting coupons at the same y?' The market's go-to measure.
  • Current yield: the annual coupon C divided by the current price P. Answers 'what cash income am I receiving as a percentage of my outlay?' Ignores capital gain or loss to maturity. Useful for income-focused investors but misleading for total-return comparison.
  • Running yield: synonymous with current yield in UK convention; in US usage sometimes refers to coupon divided by face value (i.e., the coupon rate). Always check the definition before quoting because the same words mean different things across desks.

Why prices and yields move inversely — fully unpacked

Consider a 10-year bond issued at par with a 5% coupon when market yields were 5%. Plugging into the formula at issuance, P = USD 1,000, every cash flow's present value sums to exactly face value. Suppose the market yield rises to 6% the next day. The bond's contractual cash flows have not changed — it still pays 50 per year for 9 years and 1,050 in year 10. But now those cash flows must be discounted at 6% instead of 5%. Each discount factor is larger, each present value is smaller, and the sum (the new price) falls below 1,000. The bond is now a 'discount bond' — its price is below par — because its locked-in 5% coupon is unattractive relative to fresh 6% bonds in the market.

Conversely, if yields fall to 4%, the bond's 5% coupon is suddenly more attractive than what the market is willing to offer on new issues. Buyers bid the price above par; the bond becomes a 'premium bond'. The magnitude of these moves depends on duration, which the next module formalises.

Worked example with full numbers

A 10-year, 5% annual-coupon, USD 1,000 par bond. At y = 5%, the price equals par: USD 1,000 exactly. At y = 6%, the price falls to USD 926.40 (-7.36%). At y = 4%, the price rises to USD 1,081.11 (+8.11%). The asymmetry — the 4% move adds USD 81 but the equal 1-percentage-point move in the other direction only takes USD 74 — is convexity, the second-order term we formalise in the next module. The lesson: bondholders are mathematically over-compensated when yields fall relative to the symmetric loss when yields rise, which is what makes long-duration positive-convexity bonds so valued by investors anticipating large moves.

Clean price, dirty price, and accrued interest

Bond markets quote a 'clean price' that strips out the interest accumulated since the last coupon date. The 'dirty price' (also called the full or invoice price) is what the buyer actually pays at settlement: clean price plus accrued interest. The relationship:

text
Dirty price = Clean price + Accrued interest
where:
Clean price = the quoted market price, excluding any partial-period coupon
Accrued interest = the share of the next coupon that the seller has 'earned'
by holding the bond through part of the coupon period
= C × (days held in current coupon period)
/ (total days in coupon period)
Example: a 6% annual coupon bond on a $1,000 face,
half-way through a coupon period,
accrued = $60 × (180/360) = $30
Dirty price = Clean price + $30
The buyer pays the seller the $30 accrued; on the next coupon date the
buyer receives the full $60 coupon, netting to $30 of actual coupon income
over the half-period they have owned the bond. The mechanics keep coupon
income economically aligned with holding period.

Day-count conventions

30/360 (used for many US corporate bonds), actual/actual (US Treasuries), actual/360 (money-market instruments and most eurobonds). The differences in accrued-interest calculations are small but real — and on a USD 100 million block trade, a wrong day-count assumption can produce a five-figure settlement error. Bloomberg's YA function shows the convention for any bond. Always confirm before pricing or settling.

Exercise

A 3-year, 4% annual-coupon, USD 1,000 par bond trades at a yield of 5%. (1) Compute the bond's price. (2) Explain in one sentence why the price is below par. (3) If yields fall to 3%, would the bond now trade at a discount or premium, and approximately what would its new price be?

Key takeaways

  • Bond price = present value of cash flows discounted at the yield. Yield up → price down. This inverse relationship is the most important fact in fixed income.
  • YTM is the single discount rate that equates price to cash flows. Current yield is a rough approximation that ignores capital gains.
  • Clean price excludes accrued interest, dirty price includes it. The buyer pays dirty; the quote is clean.
  • Day-count conventions matter materially on large trades. Always confirm the convention before pricing.

Further reading

  1. 01

    Bond Markets, Analysis, and Strategies

    Frank Fabozzi · Pearson · 2021

  2. 02
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