Probability Lab · v1Snapshot · 2026-05-14

World Cup 2026, by the numbers.

Match-by-match probabilities for all 104 fixtures of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, generated by two transparent statistical models. We publish the methodology, the input ratings, and the predictions before kick-off — and the accuracy data after. This is applied probability, not a tip sheet.

104

Matches modelled

Teams

Models, compared

Open

Methodology

How the model works·See how it did on past tournaments·Track our calibration as results come in

Jump toLive title oddsSpain Round of 168/8 Round of 3216/16 Trophy odds Group stage

Framing note

Probabilities, not tips.

Every match in this tool has three probabilities — home win, draw, away win — that sum to one. We report the predicted scoreline as the expected goals from each model, rounded. We do not show odds, we do not show payouts, we do not show stakes, and we do not link to any betting venue.

The point of this exercise is the opposite of a tip sheet. We publish the model openly, the input ratings openly, and the predictions before kick-off. After each match we publish what happened. Over 104 matches that gives a calibration test: are events we said were 70% likely happening about 70% of the time? That is the discipline an honest probabilistic forecaster signs up to. The accuracy page tracks it in real time.

The tools you see below are a working example of applied probability theory: the same Bayesian and Poisson machinery used in sovereign-default modelling, election forecasting, and epidemiology. Football is just a clean, public proving ground.

Tournament outlook · 10,000-path Monte Carlo

Who the model thinks lifts the trophy.

We simulated the entire tournament — 104 matches, group stage through final — ten thousand times, using the Dixon-Coles ensemble. The percentages below are the share of simulations in which each team won the World Cup. Seed: 42. Frozen pre-kickoff in the predictions-snapshot.json file committed to the repository. For who’s favourite now — with Brazil and Colombia and Portugal and Netherlands among these picks already out — see the live re-simulation below.

Spain

23.3%

to win

SF 41%

QF 52%

R16 66%

Argentina

15.3%

to win

SF 32%

QF 42%

R16 54%

France

12.3%

to win

SF 33%

QF 46%

R16 61%

England

7.3%

to win

SF 24%

QF 36%

R16 55%

Brazil

5.1%

to win

SF 21%

QF 35%

R16 52%

Colombia

4.7%

to win

SF 18%

QF 31%

R16 49%

Portugal

4.7%

to win

SF 19%

QF 32%

R16 51%

Netherlands

4.1%

to win

SF 19%

QF 34%

R16 51%

Live · re-simulated 2026-07-106 teams left · 20,000 paths

Who’s most likely to lift it now.

The panel above is frozen — locked before a ball was kicked, never re-run, because it is the audit trail. This one is live: we re-simulate only the matches still to be played, 20,000 times, from the bracket as it actually stands. As favourites fall, the odds shift. Same engine, different starting line.

Quarter-finals

Quarter-final · played

France v Morocco

2–0 France✓

Quarter-final · played

Spain v Belgium

2–1 Spain✓

Quarter-final · to play

Norway v England

Pick England (44%)

Quarter-final · to play

Argentina v Switzerland

Pick Argentina (51%)

Semi-finals

Semi-final 1 · Tue 14 July

both through

France v Spain

France 32%Draw 25%Spain 43%

Most likely: 1–1Model favours Spain

90-minute probabilities. It’s a knockout, so a draw goes to extra time and penalties — resolving those, the live model makes Spain 68% to reach the final, France 32%.

Semi-final 2 · Wed 15 July

to be set

Winner Norway v England v Winner Argentina v Switzerland

Both quarter-finals are played on Saturday. The prediction lands here once the teams are known — of the four, the model makes Argentina the most likely to come through this half.

France and Spain meet in Semi-final 1, so one of them is already guaranteed a place in the final. The other finalist comes from Semi-final 2 — the winner of Norway v England against the winner of Argentina v Switzerland. Pre-tournament favourites now knocked out: Brazil, Colombia, Portugal, Netherlands.

SpainIn SF

SF 100%F 68%

47.9%

ArgentinaIn QF

SF 76%F 54%

23.4%

FranceIn SF

SF 100%F 32%

16.1%

EnglandIn QF

SF 70%F 29%

8.3%

NorwayIn QF

SF 30%F 9%

2.2%

SwitzerlandIn QF

SF 24%F 8%

2.1%

In SF = quarter-final already won, through to the semi-finals. In QF = through to the quarter-finals. In R16 = still has a Round-of-16 tie to win first, so the trophy figure is conditional on getting there. Percentages are the share of 20,000 re-simulated brackets; seed 42, reproducible. This panel updates as results come in — the frozen pre-kickoff panel above never changes. How the model works.

Audit trail

2026-05-14

Pre-kickoff snapshot frozen

Every prediction on this page was generated and locked in on 2026-05-14 — before any 2026 World Cup match was played. The full set of probabilities, the simulation parameters, and 10,000 simulated brackets are preserved in a version-controlled snapshot that cannot be edited retroactively. If we miss, the miss stays in the record.

01Round of 16 · Knockouts

Round of 16 — locked before kick-off.

As each Round-of-32 tie is settled, the winners drop into the bracket here and we lock the prediction before kick-off. The git timestamp is the audit trail. Tap any tie for its full two-model breakdown.

At a glance · 8/8 confirmed

~07-04✗

Canada v Morocco

Canada 38%

~07-04✓

Paraguay v France

France 52%

~07-05✗

Brazil v Norway

Brazil 42%

~07-05✓

Mexico v England

England 40%

~07-06✓

Portugal v Spain

Spain 49%

~07-06✓

United States v Belgium

Belgium 38%

~07-07✓

Argentina v Egypt

Argentina 59%

~07-07✗

Switzerland v Colombia

Colombia 43%

Full breakdown — two models per tie

R16-1 · Winner R32-1 vs Winner R32-4 · ~2026-07-04

Canada v Morocco

CONCACAF · Elo 1784 vs CAF · Elo 1821 · NRG Stadium, Houston

1–1

predicted score

37.8% Canada25.9% draw36.3% Morocco

Dixon-Coles

Canada 37.8%

Draw 26.8%

Morocco 35.4%

Elo baseline

Canada 37.8%

Draw 25.0%

Morocco 37.2%

Model prediction: Canada win (37.8% confidence)

Locked 2026-07-01

Result0–3 · Morocco advance

✗ Model missed

R16-2 · Winner R32-3 vs Winner R32-6 · ~2026-07-04

Paraguay v France

CONMEBOL · Elo 1833 vs UEFA · Elo 2081 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

1–2

predicted score

22.4% Paraguay25.7% draw51.9% France

Dixon-Coles

Paraguay 30.4%

Draw 26.3%

France 43.3%

Elo baseline

Paraguay 14.5%

Draw 25.0%

France 60.5%

Model prediction: France win (51.9% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-07-01

Result0–1 · France advance

✓ Model called it

R16-3 · Winner R32-2 vs Winner R32-5 · ~2026-07-05

Brazil v Norway

CONMEBOL · Elo 1984 vs UEFA · Elo 1912 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

1–1

predicted score

41.9% Brazil25.8% draw32.3% Norway

Dixon-Coles

Brazil 38.6%

Draw 26.7%

Norway 34.8%

Elo baseline

Brazil 45.2%

Draw 25.0%

Norway 29.8%

Model prediction: Brazil win (41.9% confidence)

Locked 2026-07-01

Result1–2 · Norway advance

✗ Model missed

R16-4 · Winner R32-7 vs Winner R32-8 · ~2026-07-05

Mexico v England

CONCACAF · Elo 1858 vs UEFA · Elo 2020 · Estadio Banorte, Monterrey

2–2

predicted score

35.3% Mexico25.1% draw39.7% England

Dixon-Coles

Mexico 39.6%

Draw 25.2%

England 35.2%

Elo baseline

Mexico 30.9%

Draw 25.0%

England 44.1%

Model prediction: England win (39.7% confidence)

Locked 2026-07-01

Result2–3 · England advance

✓ Model called it

R16-5 · Winner R32-12 vs Winner R32-11 · ~2026-07-06

Portugal v Spain

UEFA · Elo 1984 vs UEFA · Elo 2165 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington

1–2

predicted score

26.0% Portugal25.5% draw48.5% Spain

Dixon-Coles

Portugal 32.4%

Draw 26.0%

Spain 41.6%

Elo baseline

Portugal 19.6%

Draw 25.0%

Spain 55.4%

Model prediction: Spain win (48.5% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-07-02

Result0–1 · Spain advance

✓ Model called it

R16-6 · Winner R32-10 vs Winner R32-9 · ~2026-07-06

United States v Belgium

CONCACAF · Elo 1721 vs UEFA · Elo 1866 · Lumen Field, Seattle

2–1

predicted score

36.2% United States25.4% draw38.4% Belgium

Dixon-Coles

United States 39.8%

Draw 25.7%

Belgium 34.5%

Elo baseline

United States 32.7%

Draw 25.0%

Belgium 42.3%

Model prediction: Belgium win (38.4% confidence)

Locked 2026-07-01

Result1–4 · Belgium advance

✓ Model called it

R16-7 · Winner R32-15 vs Winner R32-14 · ~2026-07-07

Argentina v Egypt

CONMEBOL · Elo 2113 vs CAF · Elo 1689 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

2–1

predicted score

58.5% Argentina25.5% draw16.0% Egypt

Dixon-Coles

Argentina 48.0%

Draw 26.0%

Egypt 26.0%

Elo baseline

Argentina 69.0%

Draw 25.0%

Egypt 6.0%

Model prediction: Argentina win (58.5% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-07-03

Result3–2 · Argentina advance

✓ Model called it

R16-8 · Winner R32-13 vs Winner R32-16 · ~2026-07-07

Switzerland v Colombia

UEFA · Elo 1889 vs CONMEBOL · Elo 1975 · BC Place, Vancouver

1–2

predicted score

31.4% Switzerland25.9% draw42.8% Colombia

Dixon-Coles

Switzerland 34.4%

Draw 26.7%

Colombia 38.9%

Elo baseline

Switzerland 28.4%

Draw 25.0%

Colombia 46.6%

Model prediction: Colombia win (42.8% confidence)

Locked 2026-07-03

Result0–0 (pens) · Switzerland advance

✗ Model missed

02Round of 32 · Knockouts

Knockout predictions — locked before kick-off.

Each prediction is committed to git the moment the pairing is confirmed — before the match is played. The git timestamp is the audit trail. Tap any tie to jump to its full two-model breakdown.

At a glance · 16/16 confirmed · model called 12/16 played

~06-28✓

South Africa v Canada

Canada 53%

~06-29✓

Brazil v Japan

Brazil 42%

~06-29✗

Germany v Paraguay

Germany 43%

~06-29✗

Netherlands v Morocco

Netherlands 46%

~06-30✓

Côte d'Ivoire v Norway

Norway 51%

~06-30✓

France v Sweden

France 57%

~06-30✓

Mexico v Ecuador

Mexico 41%

~07-01✓

England v Congo DR

England 57%

~07-01✗

Belgium v Senegal

Senegal 38%

~07-01✓

United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina

United States 53%

~07-02✓

Spain v Austria

Spain 56%

~07-02✓

Portugal v Croatia

Portugal 41%

~07-02✓

Switzerland v Algeria

Switzerland 46%

~07-03✗

Australia v Egypt

Australia 43%

~07-03✓

Argentina v Cabo Verde

Argentina 62%

~07-03✓

Colombia v Ghana

Colombia 60%

Full breakdown — two models per tie

R32-1 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-28

South Africa v Canada

CAF · Elo 1524 vs CONCACAF · Elo 1784 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

1–2

predicted score

20.3% South Africa26.3% draw53.4% Canada

Dixon-Coles

South Africa 29.2%

Draw 27.6%

Canada 43.2%

Elo baseline

South Africa 11.3%

Draw 25.0%

Canada 63.7%

Model prediction: Canada win (53.4% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-27

Result0–1 · Canada advance

✓ Model called it

R32-2 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-29

Brazil v Japan

CONMEBOL · Elo 1984 vs AFC · Elo 1904 · NRG Stadium, Houston

2–1

predicted score

42.4% Brazil25.8% draw31.8% Japan

Dixon-Coles

Brazil 38.8%

Draw 26.7%

Japan 34.6%

Elo baseline

Brazil 46.0%

Draw 25.0%

Japan 29.0%

Model prediction: Brazil win (42.4% confidence)

Locked 2026-06-27

Result2–1 · Brazil advance

✓ Model called it

R32-3 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-29

Germany v Paraguay

UEFA · Elo 1923 vs CONMEBOL · Elo 1833 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

1–1

predicted score

43.0% Germany26.0% draw31.1% Paraguay

Dixon-Coles

Germany 38.9%

Draw 26.9%

Paraguay 34.2%

Elo baseline

Germany 47.0%

Draw 25.0%

Paraguay 28.0%

Model prediction: Germany win (43.0% confidence)

Locked 2026-06-27

Result1–1 (pens) · Paraguay advance

✗ Model missed

R32-4 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-29

Netherlands v Morocco

UEFA · Elo 1961 vs CAF · Elo 1821 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey

2–1

predicted score

46.1% Netherlands25.9% draw28.0% Morocco

Dixon-Coles

Netherlands 40.3%

Draw 26.8%

Morocco 32.9%

Elo baseline

Netherlands 51.8%

Draw 25.0%

Morocco 23.2%

Model prediction: Netherlands win (46.1% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-27

Result1–1 (pens) · Morocco advance

✗ Model missed

R32-5 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-30

Côte d'Ivoire v Norway

CAF · Elo 1676 vs UEFA · Elo 1912 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington

1–2

predicted score

22.8% Côte d'Ivoire26.0% draw51.2% Norway

Dixon-Coles

Côte d'Ivoire 30.2%

Draw 27.1%

Norway 42.7%

Elo baseline

Côte d'Ivoire 15.3%

Draw 25.0%

Norway 59.7%

Model prediction: Norway win (51.2% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-28

Result1–2 · Norway advance

✓ Model called it

R32-6 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-30

France v Sweden

UEFA · Elo 2081 vs UEFA · Elo 1719 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

2–1

predicted score

56.5% France25.6% draw17.9% Sweden

Dixon-Coles

France 46.3%

Draw 26.2%

Sweden 27.4%

Elo baseline

France 66.7%

Draw 25.0%

Sweden 8.3%

Model prediction: France win (56.5% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-28

Result3–0 · France advance

✓ Model called it

R32-7 · Round of 32 · ~2026-06-30

Mexico v Ecuador

CONCACAF · Elo 1858 vs CONMEBOL · Elo 1933 · Estadio Banorte, Monterrey

2–1

predicted score

41.0% Mexico25.1% draw33.9% Ecuador

Dixon-Coles

Mexico 41.8%

Draw 25.2%

Ecuador 33.0%

Elo baseline

Mexico 40.2%

Draw 25.0%

Ecuador 34.8%

Model prediction: Mexico win (41.0% confidence)

Locked 2026-06-28

Result2–0 · Mexico advance

✓ Model called it

R32-8 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-01

England v Congo DR

UEFA · Elo 2020 vs CAF · Elo 1655 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

2–1

predicted score

56.6% England25.7% draw17.7% Congo DR

Dixon-Coles

England 46.4%

Draw 26.5%

Congo DR 27.2%

Elo baseline

England 66.8%

Draw 25.0%

Congo DR 8.2%

Model prediction: England win (56.6% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-29

Result2–1 · England advance

✓ Model called it

R32-9 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-01

Belgium v Senegal

UEFA · Elo 1866 vs CAF · Elo 1878 · Lumen Field, Seattle

1–1

predicted score

36.2% Belgium26.0% draw37.8% Senegal

Dixon-Coles

Belgium 36.2%

Draw 27.0%

Senegal 36.8%

Elo baseline

Belgium 36.2%

Draw 25.0%

Senegal 38.8%

Model prediction: Senegal win (37.8% confidence)

Locked 2026-06-29

Result3–2 (a.e.t.) · Belgium advance

✗ Model missed

R32-10 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-01

United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina

CONCACAF · Elo 1721 vs UEFA · Elo 1594 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

2–1

predicted score

52.9% United States25.3% draw21.7% Bosnia and Herzegovina

Dixon-Coles

United States 46.9%

Draw 25.6%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 27.5%

Elo baseline

United States 59.0%

Draw 25.0%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 16.0%

Model prediction: United States win (52.9% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-29

Result2–0 · United States advance

✓ Model called it

R32-11 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-02

Spain v Austria

UEFA · Elo 2165 vs UEFA · Elo 1827 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

2–1

predicted score

55.7% Spain25.5% draw18.9% Austria

Dixon-Coles

Spain 45.8%

Draw 25.9%

Austria 28.3%

Elo baseline

Spain 65.6%

Draw 25.0%

Austria 9.4%

Model prediction: Spain win (55.7% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-30

Result3–0 · Spain advance

✓ Model called it

R32-12 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-02

Portugal v Croatia

UEFA · Elo 1984 vs UEFA · Elo 1930 · BMO Field, Toronto

1–1

predicted score

40.7% Portugal25.8% draw33.5% Croatia

Dixon-Coles

Portugal 38.1%

Draw 26.6%

Croatia 35.3%

Elo baseline

Portugal 43.3%

Draw 25.0%

Croatia 31.7%

Model prediction: Portugal win (40.7% confidence)

Locked 2026-06-30

Result2–1 · Portugal advance

✓ Model called it

R32-13 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-02

Switzerland v Algeria

UEFA · Elo 1889 vs CAF · Elo 1743 · BC Place, Vancouver

2–1

predicted score

46.3% Switzerland26.1% draw27.6% Algeria

Dixon-Coles

Switzerland 40.3%

Draw 27.2%

Algeria 32.6%

Elo baseline

Switzerland 52.4%

Draw 25.0%

Algeria 22.6%

Model prediction: Switzerland win (46.3% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-06-30

Result2–0 · Switzerland advance

✓ Model called it

R32-14 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-03

Australia v Egypt

AFC · Elo 1783 vs CAF · Elo 1689 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington

1–1

predicted score

43.1% Australia26.3% draw30.6% Egypt

Dixon-Coles

Australia 38.7%

Draw 27.6%

Egypt 33.7%

Elo baseline

Australia 47.4%

Draw 25.0%

Egypt 27.6%

Model prediction: Australia win (43.1% confidence)

Locked 2026-07-01

Result1–1 (pens) · Egypt advance

✗ Model missed

R32-15 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-03

Argentina v Cabo Verde

CONMEBOL · Elo 2113 vs CAF · Elo 1549 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

2–1

predicted score

62.0% Argentina25.3% draw12.7% Cabo Verde

Dixon-Coles

Argentina 51.9%

Draw 25.6%

Cabo Verde 22.5%

Elo baseline

Argentina 72.2%

Draw 25.0%

Cabo Verde 2.8%

Model prediction: Argentina win (62.0% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-07-01

Result3–2 (a.e.t.) · Argentina advance

✓ Model called it

R32-16 · Round of 32 · ~2026-07-03

Colombia v Ghana

CONMEBOL · Elo 1975 vs CAF · Elo 1505 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

2–1

predicted score

59.8% Colombia25.7% draw14.5% Ghana

Dixon-Coles

Colombia 49.2%

Draw 26.4%

Ghana 24.3%

Elo baseline

Colombia 70.3%

Draw 25.0%

Ghana 4.7%

Model prediction: Colombia win (59.8% confidence)

⚠ Models disagreeLocked 2026-07-01

Result1–0 · Colombia advance

✓ Model called it

03Group stage · how they got here

72 matches across 12 groups.

The road to the Round of 32. For each group we show the model's expected-points projection, then every match with the ensemble probability and predicted scoreline. Click a match to see the two models compared.

Group AHost: MEX

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	MexicoCONCACAF	5.7	77%
2	Korea RepublicAFC	4.1	63%
3	CzechiaUEFA	4.0	26%
4	South AfricaCAF	2.6	14%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Mexico v South Africa
2–1
predicted
61% MEXD 25%RSA 14%
Pick: Mexico(61% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Korea Republic v Czechia
1–1
predicted
39% KORD 26%CZE 35%
Pick: Korea Republic(39% conf.)
Matchday 2
Mexico v Korea Republic
2–1
predicted
52% MEXD 25%KOR 23%
Pick: Mexico(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Czechia v South Africa
2–1
predicted
49% CZED 26%RSA 24%
Pick: Czechia(49% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Czechia v Mexico
1–2
predicted
22% CZED 25%MEX 53%
Pick: Mexico(53% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
South Africa v Korea Republic
1–2
predicted
23% RSAD 26%KOR 51%
Pick: Korea Republic(51% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

Group BHost: CAN

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	CanadaCONCACAF	5.4	75%
2	SwitzerlandUEFA	5.2	73%
3	Bosnia and HerzegovinaUEFA	3.4	21%
4	QatarAFC	2.4	12%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Canada v Switzerland
2–1
predicted
39% CAND 25%SUI 36%
Pick: Canada(39% conf.)
Matchday 1
Qatar v Bosnia and Herzegovina
1–1
predicted
26% QATD 27%BIH 47%
Pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina(47% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Canada v Qatar
2–1
predicted
62% CAND 25%QAT 14%
Pick: Canada(62% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Switzerland
1–2
predicted
20% BIHD 26%SUI 54%
Pick: Switzerland(54% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Canada
1–2
predicted
19% BIHD 25%CAN 56%
Pick: Canada(56% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Switzerland v Qatar
2–1
predicted
60% SUID 26%QAT 15%
Pick: Switzerland(60% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

Group CNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	BrazilCONMEBOL	5.5	75%
2	MoroccoCAF	4.4	65%
3	ScotlandUEFA	4.0	26%
4	HaitiCONCACAF	2.7	15%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Brazil v Morocco
2–1
predicted
47% BRAD 26%MAR 27%
Pick: Brazil(47% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Haiti v Scotland
1–2
predicted
25% HAID 26%SCO 48%
Pick: Scotland(48% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Brazil v Haiti
2–1
predicted
59% BRAD 26%HAI 16%
Pick: Brazil(59% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Scotland v Morocco
1–1
predicted
33% SCOD 26%MAR 41%
Pick: Morocco(41% conf.)
Matchday 3
Scotland v Brazil
1–2
predicted
24% SCOD 26%BRA 50%
Pick: Brazil(50% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Morocco v Haiti
2–1
predicted
52% MARD 26%HAI 21%
Pick: Morocco(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

Group DHost: USA

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	TürkiyeUEFA	4.6	67%
2	United StatesCONCACAF	4.2	63%
3	ParaguayCONMEBOL	4.0	27%
4	AustraliaAFC	3.6	23%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
United States v Paraguay
2–1
predicted
38% USAD 25%PAR 36%
Pick: United States(38% conf.)
Matchday 1
Australia v Türkiye
1–2
predicted
29% AUSD 26%TUR 45%
Pick: Türkiye(45% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
United States v Australia
2–1
predicted
42% USAD 25%AUS 33%
Pick: United States(42% conf.)
Matchday 2
Türkiye v Paraguay
1–1
predicted
42% TURD 26%PAR 32%
Pick: Türkiye(42% conf.)
Matchday 3
Türkiye v United States
2–2
predicted
41% TURD 25%USA 34%
Pick: Türkiye(41% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Paraguay v Australia
1–1
predicted
40% PARD 26%AUS 34%
Pick: Paraguay(40% conf.)

Group ENeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	EcuadorCONMEBOL	5.3	73%
2	GermanyUEFA	5.2	72%
3	Côte d'IvoireCAF	3.6	23%
4	CuraçaoCONCACAF	2.5	12%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Germany v Curaçao
2–1
predicted
60% GERD 26%CUW 15%
Pick: Germany(60% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador
1–2
predicted
22% CIVD 26%ECU 52%
Pick: Ecuador(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
2–1
predicted
52% GERD 26%CIV 22%
Pick: Germany(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Ecuador v Curaçao
2–1
predicted
60% ECUD 26%CUW 14%
Pick: Ecuador(60% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Ecuador v Germany
1–1
predicted
38% ECUD 26%GER 36%
Pick: Ecuador(38% conf.)
Matchday 3
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire
1–2
predicted
25% CUWD 26%CIV 49%
Pick: Côte d'Ivoire(49% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

Group FNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	NetherlandsUEFA	5.2	72%
2	JapanAFC	4.8	69%
3	SwedenUEFA	3.5	22%
4	TunisiaCAF	2.9	17%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Netherlands v Japan
1–1
predicted
41% NEDD 26%JPN 33%
Pick: Netherlands(41% conf.)
Matchday 1
Tunisia v Sweden
1–1
predicted
31% TUND 26%SWE 42%
Pick: Sweden(42% conf.)
Matchday 2
Netherlands v Tunisia
2–1
predicted
55% NEDD 26%TUN 19%
Pick: Netherlands(55% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Sweden v Japan
1–2
predicted
25% SWED 26%JPN 49%
Pick: Japan(49% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Sweden v Netherlands
1–2
predicted
23% SWED 26%NED 52%
Pick: Netherlands(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Japan v Tunisia
2–1
predicted
53% JPND 26%TUN 21%
Pick: Japan(53% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

Group GNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	BelgiumUEFA	5.1	72%
2	IranAFC	4.4	65%
3	EgyptCAF	3.8	25%
4	New ZealandOFC	3.1	18%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Belgium v Egypt
2–1
predicted
48% BELD 26%EGY 26%
Pick: Belgium(48% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Iran v New Zealand
2–1
predicted
48% IRND 26%NZL 26%
Pick: Iran(48% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Belgium v Iran
1–1
predicted
44% BELD 26%IRN 30%
Pick: Belgium(44% conf.)
Matchday 2
New Zealand v Egypt
1–1
predicted
30% NZLD 27%EGY 44%
Pick: Egypt(44% conf.)
Matchday 3
New Zealand v Belgium
1–2
predicted
21% NZLD 26%BEL 53%
Pick: Belgium(53% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Egypt v Iran
1–1
predicted
32% EGYD 26%IRN 42%
Pick: Iran(42% conf.)

Group HNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	SpainUEFA	6.1	81%
2	UruguayCONMEBOL	4.7	68%
3	Saudi ArabiaAFC	2.8	16%
4	Cabo VerdeCAF	2.7	15%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Spain v Cabo Verde
2–1
predicted
63% ESPD 25%CPV 12%
Pick: Spain(63% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
1–2
predicted
19% KSAD 26%URU 55%
Pick: Uruguay(55% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Spain v Saudi Arabia
2–1
predicted
63% ESPD 25%KSA 12%
Pick: Spain(63% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Uruguay v Cabo Verde
2–1
predicted
56% URUD 26%CPV 18%
Pick: Uruguay(56% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Uruguay v Spain
1–2
predicted
21% URUD 25%ESP 53%
Pick: Spain(53% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia
1–1
predicted
35% CPVD 27%KSA 38%
Pick: Saudi Arabia(38% conf.)

Group INeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	FranceUEFA	5.5	75%
2	NorwayUEFA	4.4	65%
3	SenegalCAF	4.1	28%
4	IraqAFC	2.4	12%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
France v Senegal
2–1
predicted
50% FRAD 26%SEN 25%
Pick: France(50% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Norway v Iraq
2–1
predicted
54% NORD 26%IRQ 20%
Pick: Norway(54% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
France v Norway
2–1
predicted
48% FRAD 26%NOR 27%
Pick: France(48% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Iraq v Senegal
1–2
predicted
21% IRQD 26%SEN 53%
Pick: Senegal(53% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Iraq v France
1–2
predicted
15% IRQD 25%FRA 60%
Pick: France(60% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Senegal v Norway
1–1
predicted
35% SEND 26%NOR 39%
Pick: Norway(39% conf.)

Group JNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	ArgentinaCONMEBOL	5.8	78%
2	AustriaUEFA	4.1	62%
3	AlgeriaCAF	3.5	22%
4	JordanAFC	3.1	18%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Argentina v Algeria
2–1
predicted
57% ARGD 26%ALG 18%
Pick: Argentina(57% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Austria v Jordan
2–1
predicted
46% AUTD 26%JOR 28%
Pick: Austria(46% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Argentina v Austria
2–1
predicted
54% ARGD 26%AUT 21%
Pick: Argentina(54% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Jordan v Algeria
1–1
predicted
33% JORD 26%ALG 40%
Pick: Algeria(40% conf.)
Matchday 3
Jordan v Argentina
1–2
predicted
16% JORD 25%ARG 58%
Pick: Argentina(58% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Algeria v Austria
1–1
predicted
31% ALGD 26%AUT 42%
Pick: Austria(42% conf.)

Group KNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	PortugalUEFA	5.1	72%
2	ColombiaCONMEBOL	5.1	71%
3	UzbekistanAFC	3.4	21%
4	Congo DRCAF	2.9	16%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
Portugal v Uzbekistan
2–1
predicted
52% PORD 26%UZB 22%
Pick: Portugal(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 1
Colombia v Congo DR
2–1
predicted
55% COLD 26%COD 19%
Pick: Colombia(55% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Portugal v Colombia
1–1
predicted
38% PORD 26%COL 37%
Pick: Portugal(38% conf.)
Matchday 2
Congo DR v Uzbekistan
1–1
predicted
32% CODD 26%UZB 42%
Pick: Uzbekistan(42% conf.)
Matchday 3
Congo DR v Portugal
1–2
predicted
19% CODD 26%POR 55%
Pick: Portugal(55% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Uzbekistan v Colombia
1–2
predicted
22% UZBD 26%COL 52%
Pick: Colombia(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

Group LNeutral venue

Projected standings

#	Team	xPts	P(advance)P(adv)
1	EnglandUEFA	5.5	74%
2	CroatiaUEFA	4.9	69%
3	PanamaCONCACAF	3.9	25%
4	GhanaCAF	2.3	11%

Match predictions (ensemble)

Matchday 1
England v Croatia
2–1
predicted
43% ENGD 26%CRO 31%
Pick: England(43% conf.)
Matchday 1
Ghana v Panama
1–2
predicted
21% GHAD 26%PAN 52%
Pick: Panama(52% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
England v Ghana
2–1
predicted
61% ENGD 26%GHA 14%
Pick: England(61% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 2
Panama v Croatia
1–2
predicted
28% PAND 26%CRO 46%
Pick: Croatia(46% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Panama v England
1–2
predicted
23% PAND 26%ENG 51%
Pick: England(51% conf.)⚠ Models disagree
Matchday 3
Croatia v Ghana
2–1
predicted
58% CROD 26%GHA 16%
Pick: Croatia(58% conf.)⚠ Models disagree

How to read this page

A few honest words on uncertainty.

A 70% probability is not a guarantee. It means: if we ran this scenario 10 times, we'd expect this outcome roughly 7 times. The remaining 3 are not surprises; they are part of the model. The same logic applies to every probability on this page.

When the two models disagree by more than 10 percentage points on any outcome, we flag the match with a ⚠ Models disagree label. That is not a hedge — it is a confession: when two reasonable models disagree, the truth has wider error bars than either suggests on its own.

The model inputs are FIFA Men's World Ranking points (April 2026) and approximate Elo ratings from eloratings.net. We do not use bookmaker odds, transfer-market values, or fitness data — both for transparency and to keep the model citable. The methodology page walks through every equation.

Accountability

Hold us to the calibration plot.

Once group-stage matches start on 11 June 2026, the accuracy page will be live with running Brier scores, log-loss, and a calibration plot of predicted vs realised frequencies. A model that says things confidently and is wrong is not a useful model — and we will be the first to report it.

Methodology →Accuracy tracking →

Elsewhere in the Lab.

The Probability Lab is one part of a wider platform. A few nearby corners worth a look.

Football

Premier League 2026/27 predictions

The same Dixon-Coles + Elo engine, calibrated to the Premier League — a projected final table, title and relegation odds, and match-by-match picks.

Lab hub

All Probability Lab projects

The umbrella for applied-probability work — current and forthcoming projects with open methodology.

Models

Economic models, interactive

15 sliderable economic models — AD-AS, IS-LM, Mundell-Fleming, Solow, Cournot, Phillips, Laffer, and more.

Data

Data Store

Curated CSV and JSON downloads on African public finance, mobile payments, and macroeconomic indicators.

Analysis

What a slider can do that a chalkboard can't

The argument behind the Probability Lab — and the interactive models hub it sits alongside.