Analysis & Essays

Ten flags went to the World Cup. One is still flying: Africa 2026, in numbers

“Ten went, the most we have ever sent. Nine reached the knockouts. Three heartbreaks that all read 3–2. Ten flags went; one is still flying.”

Kenya's KES 3 Trillion Wage Economy: Nine Years of Earnings Data, Unpacked

“Private sector education wages fell KES 50 billion in a single year. The hospitality sector got the headlines. Private schools absorbed a shock of almost identical scale — and almost no one discussed it.”

Sessional Paper No. 10 and its long shadow: an economic reading of the 2026 Madaraka Day address

“For six decades, Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1965 codified the exclusion of Northern Kenya. The 2026 Madaraka Day address presented the numbers behind the attempt to reverse it.”

Kenya's NHIF collected KES 40B and paid out KES 38B — here's what nine years of data says about the fund's health

“In 2019 the fund paid out KES 1.22 for every shilling it collected — a loss ratio of 122%. COVID briefly repaired the books, but for the wrong reasons.”

Reading the World Bank's first structural adjustment program for Kenya

The World Bank's 1980 diagnosis of Kenya's manufacturing pattern — protected, import-substituting, oriented to a wider East African market that had just collapsed — and why its prescription, sound as it sounded on paper, set one-sided rules.

Africa's economic map redrew itself: GDP by sub-region and bloc, 1990–2024

“Eastern Africa more than doubled its share of African GDP — 7.4% in 1990, 15.7% in 2024. It was also the only African region that grew through COVID, at +1.2% real on a GDP-weighted basis, against a world average of −2.7%.”

The Pension Trade: How Kenya's Retirement Money Became a Government Bond Fund

“Of every shilling Kenyans set aside for retirement, more than fifty cents now sits in government paper. The pension industry has stopped being an investment system and started being a financing system.”

AGPO: five years of Kenya's 30% procurement programme, in the data

The Access to Government Procurement Opportunities programme reserves 30% of public procurement for youth, women, and PWDs. Five years of KNBS data (2018–2022) shows where it's working, where it stalled, and where it's quietly off-balance.

What a slider can do that a chalkboard can't

On the third attempt at understanding IS-LM, eight economic models that just went live, and the small bet that if you can move it, you'll remember it.

The LeadAfrik Public Economics Hub: 33 finance tools, three free courses, and how they fit together

A quick guide to what's on the platform: 33 finance and economics calculators across personal money, wealth, investing, business, tax, and macro; three structured free courses (SQL for analysts, reading a financial statement, African Macro 101); and the architecture that ties them together.

The Bank Always Wins: 34 Years of Kenya's Interest Rate Data

“For 34 years, across crises, policy reversals, and economic cycles, Kenyan banks have maintained a lending-deposit spread averaging 9.51 percentage points. The institution has always been the winner.”

Kenya's Mobile Money Revolution: 18 Years of Data

From 307 agents and 20,000 accounts in 2007 to 473,000 agents and 89.5 million accounts in 2025. Here is what 18 years of CBK data shows about the infrastructure that reshaped Kenya's economy.

Kenya is Deindustrialising — and Not Many Are Talking About It

10 years of GDP data reveals Kenya's economy more than doubled — but manufacturing is quietly losing ground while agriculture defied development theory.

The World Still Drinks Kenya's Tea, But Its Fastest-Growing Export Is Flowers

26 years of Kenya's principal export data (1998–2025) reveal a structural shift: horticulture is overtaking tea, and the export mix is quietly changing.

Kenya and Uganda: East Africa's Closest Trade Siblings

If Uganda shut its doors, Kenya's exports would fall by close to 40%. 28 years of export data reveal a dramatic structural pivot away from Europe toward East Africa.

Which Month Do Kenyans in the Diaspora Send the Most Money Home?

It's not February, despite Valentine's Day. 15 years of diaspora remittance data reveal December dominance, a COVID shift that never reversed, and a North American corridor worth $2.9B annually.

Kenya's Debt is More Than Numbers — Here's What 26 Years of Data Shows

Kenya's debt has grown 22.9× in 26 years. But the real danger isn't the size — it's the structure. Costs, currency risk, and a narrowing revenue base make Kenya's debt position far more precarious than the headline ratio suggests.

Kenya's FY 2025/26 Financial Statement: Six Things That Matter

Revenue is diversified but insufficient, deficit financing is mostly domestic, and 81.5% of spending is recurrent. A close reading of Kenya's FY 2025/26 Financial Statement.

Kenya's Debt Is More Than Numbers — Here's Why

“More than 54% of Kenya's government revenue now goes to interest payments.”

Kenya's FY 2025/26 Budget: Six Structural Vulnerabilities

“81.5% of spending is recurrent, while only 18.5% goes to development.”

Kenya’s Revenue Sources in FY 2025/26

According to Kenya’s Financial Statement for FY 2025/26, the government expects to raise KSh 2.75 trillion in ordinary revenue. Of this, income tax, w

African Socialism and the Economic Foundations of Kenya

“In it we see a country that is determined to shape its destiny, borrow what is necessary, discard what it does not want and achieve its goals on its terms.”

Debt is Not Just Debt. The Context of Kenya's Debt Crisis.

Good times bring better times and bad times bring worse times. Unfortunately for Kenya, the debt crisis is pushing good times towards the rearview mir