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Economic Models

The canonical models, made interactive.

Each model has three sections: the theory (what the model says, who developed it, and the math), an interactive playground (move the parameters, watch the equilibrium move), and classroom notes (how to teach it well, common student traps, where the model breaks).

12

Live models

5

Categories

3

Levels

Free

Cost

Featured · Probability Lab

Applied probability, in public.

The Probability Lab is a small set of transparent statistical models for public-interest questions. Published methodology, predictions before the event, accuracy tracking after. Current artefact: a full match-prediction model for the FIFA World Cup 2026.

Live · 104 matches modelled · v1

June 11 – July 19, 2026

World Cup 2026 — Statistical Match Predictions

Match-by-match probabilities for every fixture of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, generated by two transparent statistical models (Dixon-Coles Poisson and an Elo baseline) and tracked for calibration as results come in. Probabilities, not odds. Models, not algorithms.

Open the model

For teachers

Built to be taught from.

Three sections per model

Theory, playground, classroom notes — so a 50-minute lecture has the structure already in place.

Interactive, not just animated

Students change parameters; the equilibrium moves. The intuition lands faster than chalkboard derivation alone.

Honest caveats

Each model section includes where the model breaks, common student traps, and the next-step extensions in the literature.