Are we any good? The scoreboard.
A confident model that is wrong is worse than an uncertain one that says so. Every Premier League pick is frozen before kickoff and scored against the result here — no quiet edits, no cherry-picking.
Grading begins at the first kickoff of the 2026/27 season. Predictions are already frozen for the fixtures on the predictions page — this scoreboard fills in as results come in.
How this is scored. “Called right” counts a pick as correct when the model’s most-likely outcome (home win, draw, or away win) matches the final result. The Brier score measures the full probability forecast across all three outcomes — 0 is perfect, and lower is better. Only fixtures whose predictions were frozen before kickoff are graded. As a yardstick, always backing the home side wins roughly 46% of Premier League matches; a blind three-way guess wins about 33%. Back to the predictions →