How we're doing.
Running calibration of the v1 ensemble model against actual results. Brier score, log-loss, winner accuracy, calibration plot. We update after every match. We publish misses honestly.
98
Matches scored
65%
Winner accuracy
0.534
Brier score
0.908
Log-loss
Calibration plot
Predictions bucketed by the model's stated confidence in its favoured outcome. A well-calibrated model has empirical frequencies (right column) that match its predicted-probability buckets.
| Predicted-favourite bucket | Predictions in bucket | Actual win rate | Calibrated? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 11 | 55% | ≈ close |
| 40-50% | 37 | 51% | ✓ on track |
| 50-60% | 44 | 80% | ✗ off |
| 60-70% | 6 | 67% | ✓ on track |
Match log
Every finished match: what we predicted, what happened, how it scored.
Group A · MD1
Mexico v South Africa
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.235 · log-loss 0.496 · ✓ winner correct
Group A · MD1
Korea Republic v Czechia
2–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.569 · log-loss 0.952 · ✓ winner correct
Group A · MD2
Mexico v Korea Republic
1–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.347 · log-loss 0.655 · ✓ winner correct
Group A · MD2
Czechia v South Africa
1–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.843 · log-loss 1.330 · ✗ winner missed
Group A · MD3
Czechia v Mexico
0–3(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.329 · log-loss 0.630 · ✓ winner correct
Group A · MD3
South Africa v Korea Republic
1–0(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.921 · log-loss 1.473 · ✗ winner missed
Group B · MD1
Canada v Switzerland
1–2(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.627 · log-loss 1.027 · ✗ winner missed
Group B · MD1
Qatar v Bosnia and Herzegovina
1–3(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.415 · log-loss 0.746 · ✓ winner correct
Group B · MD2
Canada v Qatar
6–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.228 · log-loss 0.485 · ✓ winner correct
Group B · MD2
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Switzerland
1–4(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.321 · log-loss 0.619 · ✓ winner correct
Group B · MD3
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Canada
1–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.908 · log-loss 1.381 · ✗ winner missed
Group B · MD3
Switzerland v Qatar
1–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.925 · log-loss 1.351 · ✗ winner missed
Group C · MD1
Brazil v Morocco
1–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.846 · log-loss 1.352 · ✗ winner missed
Group C · MD1
Haiti v Scotland
0–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.398 · log-loss 0.724 · ✓ winner correct
Group C · MD2
Brazil v Haiti
3–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.261 · log-loss 0.533 · ✓ winner correct
Group C · MD2
Scotland v Morocco
0–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.533 · log-loss 0.903 · ✓ winner correct
Group C · MD3
Scotland v Brazil
0–3(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.371 · log-loss 0.687 · ✓ winner correct
Group C · MD3
Morocco v Haiti
4–2(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.342 · log-loss 0.648 · ✓ winner correct
Group D · MD1
United States v Paraguay
4–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.575 · log-loss 0.957 · ✓ winner correct
Group D · MD1
Australia v Türkiye
2–0(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.769 · log-loss 1.230 · ✗ winner missed
Group D · MD2
United States v Australia
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.512 · log-loss 0.873 · ✓ winner correct
Group D · MD2
Türkiye v Paraguay
0–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.697 · log-loss 1.127 · ✗ winner missed
Group D · MD3
Türkiye v United States
3–2(predicted 2–2)
Brier 0.530 · log-loss 0.898 · ✓ winner correct
Group D · MD3
Paraguay v Australia
0–0(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.821 · log-loss 1.342 · ✗ winner missed
Group E · MD1
Germany v Curaçao
7–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.250 · log-loss 0.516 · ✓ winner correct
Group E · MD1
Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador
1–0(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.951 · log-loss 1.523 · ✗ winner missed
Group E · MD2
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
2–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.350 · log-loss 0.659 · ✓ winner correct
Group E · MD2
Ecuador v Curaçao
0–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.931 · log-loss 1.356 · ✗ winner missed
Group E · MD3
Ecuador v Germany
2–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.587 · log-loss 0.975 · ✓ winner correct
Group E · MD3
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire
0–2(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.395 · log-loss 0.720 · ✓ winner correct
Group F · MD1
Netherlands v Japan
2–2(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.827 · log-loss 1.352 · ✗ winner missed
Group F · MD1
Tunisia v Sweden
1–5(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.501 · log-loss 0.860 · ✓ winner correct
Group F · MD2
Netherlands v Tunisia
3–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.305 · log-loss 0.596 · ✓ winner correct
Group F · MD2
Sweden v Japan
1–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.847 · log-loss 1.345 · ✗ winner missed
Group F · MD3
Sweden v Netherlands
1–5(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.353 · log-loss 0.663 · ✓ winner correct
Group F · MD3
Japan v Tunisia
4–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.337 · log-loss 0.641 · ✓ winner correct
Group G · MD1
Belgium v Egypt
1–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.843 · log-loss 1.342 · ✗ winner missed
Group G · MD1
Iran v New Zealand
2–2(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.838 · log-loss 1.333 · ✗ winner missed
Group G · MD2
Belgium v Iran
0–0(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.829 · log-loss 1.343 · ✗ winner missed
Group G · MD2
New Zealand v Egypt
1–3(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.478 · log-loss 0.830 · ✓ winner correct
Group G · MD3
New Zealand v Belgium
1–5(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.330 · log-loss 0.630 · ✓ winner correct
Group G · MD3
Egypt v Iran
1–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.819 · log-loss 1.335 · ✗ winner missed
Group H · MD1
Spain v Cabo Verde
0–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.974 · log-loss 1.383 · ✗ winner missed
Group H · MD1
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
1–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.886 · log-loss 1.345 · ✗ winner missed
Group H · MD2
Spain v Saudi Arabia
4–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.217 · log-loss 0.466 · ✓ winner correct
Group H · MD2
Uruguay v Cabo Verde
2–2(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.891 · log-loss 1.346 · ✗ winner missed
Group H · MD3
Uruguay v Spain
0–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.331 · log-loss 0.634 · ✓ winner correct
Group H · MD3
Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia
0–0(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.806 · log-loss 1.319 · ✗ winner missed
Group I · MD1
France v Senegal
3–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.380 · log-loss 0.700 · ✓ winner correct
Group I · MD1
Norway v Iraq
4–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.316 · log-loss 0.611 · ✓ winner correct
Group I · MD2
France v Norway
4–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.408 · log-loss 0.738 · ✓ winner correct
Group I · MD2
Iraq v Senegal
0–5(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.335 · log-loss 0.639 · ✓ winner correct
Group I · MD3
Iraq v France
0–3(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.247 · log-loss 0.513 · ✓ winner correct
Group I · MD3
Senegal v Norway
2–3(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.557 · log-loss 0.934 · ✓ winner correct
Group J · MD1
Argentina v Algeria
3–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.283 · log-loss 0.566 · ✓ winner correct
Group J · MD1
Austria v Jordan
3–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.442 · log-loss 0.782 · ✓ winner correct
Group J · MD2
Argentina v Austria
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.324 · log-loss 0.624 · ✓ winner correct
Group J · MD2
Jordan v Algeria
1–2(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.536 · log-loss 0.907 · ✓ winner correct
Group J · MD3
Jordan v Argentina
1–3(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.263 · log-loss 0.536 · ✓ winner correct
Group J · MD3
Algeria v Austria
3–3(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.824 · log-loss 1.340 · ✗ winner missed
Group K · MD1
Portugal v Uzbekistan
5–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.343 · log-loss 0.649 · ✓ winner correct
Group K · MD1
Colombia v Congo DR
1–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.307 · log-loss 0.599 · ✓ winner correct
Group K · MD2
Portugal v Colombia
0–0(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.827 · log-loss 1.356 · ✗ winner missed
Group K · MD2
Congo DR v Uzbekistan
3–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.705 · log-loss 1.140 · ✗ winner missed
Group K · MD3
Congo DR v Portugal
1–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.891 · log-loss 1.353 · ✗ winner missed
Group K · MD3
Uzbekistan v Colombia
1–3(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.349 · log-loss 0.658 · ✓ winner correct
Group L · MD1
England v Croatia
4–2(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.488 · log-loss 0.843 · ✓ winner correct
Group L · MD1
Ghana v Panama
1–0(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.961 · log-loss 1.543 · ✗ winner missed
Group L · MD2
England v Ghana
0–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.944 · log-loss 1.364 · ✗ winner missed
Group L · MD2
Panama v Croatia
0–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.433 · log-loss 0.770 · ✓ winner correct
Group L · MD3
Panama v England
0–2(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.359 · log-loss 0.671 · ✓ winner correct
Group L · MD3
Croatia v Ghana
2–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.264 · log-loss 0.537 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
South Africa v Canada
0–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.327 · log-loss 0.627 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Brazil v Japan
2–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.500 · log-loss 0.859 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Germany v Paraguay
1–1(pens)(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.829 · log-loss 1.348 · ✗ winner missed
Round of 32
Netherlands v Morocco
1–1(pens)(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.840 · log-loss 1.350 · ✗ winner missed
Round of 32
Côte d'Ivoire v Norway
1–2(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.358 · log-loss 0.669 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
France v Sweden
3–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.287 · log-loss 0.571 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Mexico v Ecuador
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.526 · log-loss 0.892 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
England v Congo DR
2–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.286 · log-loss 0.569 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Belgium v Senegal
3–2(a.e.t.)(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.618 · log-loss 1.016 · ✗ winner missed
Round of 32
United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.333 · log-loss 0.636 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Spain v Austria
3–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.297 · log-loss 0.585 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Portugal v Croatia
2–1(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.531 · log-loss 0.899 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Switzerland v Algeria
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.432 · log-loss 0.769 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Australia v Egypt
1–1(pens)(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.823 · log-loss 1.336 · ✗ winner missed
Round of 32
Argentina v Cabo Verde
3–2(a.e.t.)(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.224 · log-loss 0.477 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 32
Colombia v Ghana
1–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.249 · log-loss 0.515 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 16
Canada v Morocco
0–3(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.616 · log-loss 1.014 · ✗ winner missed
Round of 16
Paraguay v France
0–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.348 · log-loss 0.656 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 16
Brazil v Norway
1–2(predicted 1–1)
Brier 0.700 · log-loss 1.130 · ✗ winner missed
Round of 16
Mexico v England
2–3(predicted 2–2)
Brier 0.551 · log-loss 0.925 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 16
Portugal v Spain
0–1(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.397 · log-loss 0.723 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 16
United States v Belgium
1–4(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.575 · log-loss 0.957 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 16
Argentina v Egypt
3–2(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.263 · log-loss 0.536 · ✓ winner correct
Round of 16
Switzerland v Colombia
0–0(pens)(predicted 1–2)
Brier 0.831 · log-loss 1.353 · ✗ winner missed
Quarter-final
France v Morocco
2–0(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.340 · log-loss 0.646 · ✓ winner correct
Quarter-final
Spain v Belgium
2–1(predicted 2–1)
Brier 0.316 · log-loss 0.613 · ✓ winner correct
How this updates
As results come in, the numbers update — no edits to predictions.
When a match finishes, the score lands in our results record and this page recomputes the running totals. The original prediction is never re-run, never softened, never re-calibrated to look better in hindsight.