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Rating agencies and private-sector infrastructure

S&P Global Ratings, Moody's, Fitch

The 'Big Three' global credit rating agencies — they assign ratings to Kenya's sovereign debt and to major Kenyan corporate and bank issuers.

Mandate

Private rating agencies, not regulators. Mandate is to provide independent opinions on creditworthiness — the probability and severity of default — to investors. Recognised by securities regulators globally as Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs in the US) or equivalent.

How it works

Each agency runs its own methodology. Sovereign ratings consider debt burden, fiscal flexibility, monetary policy credibility, growth, governance, and external position. Annual or semi-annual reviews; off-cycle updates after major events. Ratings move on a discrete scale (AAA, AA+, AA, ..., D).

Why it matters

Kenya's sovereign rating directly determines the spread it pays on Eurobonds. Movements in or near 'B-' / 'CCC+' territory mean material yield differences and can trigger forced selling by funds with rating mandates. Bank-issuer ratings affect cross-border counterparty lines and subordinated-debt pricing.

What to watch

Rating actions on Kenya (typically 1-2 per year per agency), the published rationale, the outlook (Positive / Stable / Negative / Watch). The full rating reports give the most candid third-party view of fiscal and external risks.