Public finance

Sessional Paper No. 10 and its long shadow: an economic reading of the 2026 Madaraka Day address

“For six decades, Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1965 codified the exclusion of Northern Kenya. The 2026 Madaraka Day address presented the numbers behind the attempt to reverse it.”

Kenya's NHIF collected KES 40B and paid out KES 38B — here's what nine years of data says about the fund's health

“In 2019 the fund paid out KES 1.22 for every shilling it collected — a loss ratio of 122%. COVID briefly repaired the books, but for the wrong reasons.”

The Pension Trade: How Kenya's Retirement Money Became a Government Bond Fund

“Of every shilling Kenyans set aside for retirement, more than fifty cents now sits in government paper. The pension industry has stopped being an investment system and started being a financing system.”

Kenya's Debt is More Than Numbers — Here's What 26 Years of Data Shows

Kenya's debt has grown 22.9× in 26 years. But the real danger isn't the size — it's the structure. Costs, currency risk, and a narrowing revenue base make Kenya's debt position far more precarious than the headline ratio suggests.

Kenya's FY 2025/26 Financial Statement: Six Things That Matter

Revenue is diversified but insufficient, deficit financing is mostly domestic, and 81.5% of spending is recurrent. A close reading of Kenya's FY 2025/26 Financial Statement.

Kenya's Debt Is More Than Numbers — Here's Why

“More than 54% of Kenya's government revenue now goes to interest payments.”

Kenya's FY 2025/26 Budget: Six Structural Vulnerabilities

“81.5% of spending is recurrent, while only 18.5% goes to development.”