Eurobond Roulette

Commodity boom

Copper above $10k. Brent at $95. The terms-of-trade tide lifts resource exporters; the rest stay where they are.

Fed hiking cycle

The Fed is not done. The 10-year UST grinds higher; frontier spreads widen in sympathy. Fundamentals separate the bunch.

IMF programs spreading

Egypt and Ghana lean into IMF anchors and tighten. Zambia’s restructuring drags on. Nigeria avoids the Fund; the market is patient — for now.

Default contagion

One sovereign misses a coupon. The rest of the asset class reprices overnight. Whose fundamentals justify the panic — and whose don’t?