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Yield Curve Detective

The shape of the sovereign yield curve is the market’s consensus forecast of growth, inflation, and policy. We show you a real curve and three headlines from that week. You tell us which regime the bond market was pricing. Eight cases per round, drawn from 16 historical snapshots across the US, UK, Germany, and Japan.

Six regimes to choose between

Normal expansion: steep-but-modest, mid-cycle.
Overheating / mid-cycle: flattening, hot inflation.
Recession risk / late cycle: inverted.
Stagflation: inverted at high nominal levels.
Easing cycle / early recovery: very steep, front pinned.
Stress / flight to quality: distorted by sovereign or funding stress.